2013 season ending... how did we do?

We got the 2013 vine inventory done and started reviewing the data.  How did we do when compared to the 2012 forecast (as described in the 2012 annual report).

We have a lot more seedlings growing than expected (1215 total vines, but expected only 900)

We had a lot less growth than expected (166 vines over waist high, but expected 320).  Water problems account for some of that, but a lot of the 2012 seedlings just don't like the soil here and hardly grew at all.

We had a lot fewer vines producing ripe berries ( got 7 brix tests, but 'hoped' for 141).  This was the worst forecast.  We had a very late frost that decimated blossoms, but at best we were going to get 30 vines producing berries, not 141.  An entirely new forecast needed here.

We exceeded expectations when it came to October ripening berries (3 late ripening vines.  Only forecasted 1). 

What 2013 has shown us is this: Texas vineyards need vines with a late May Floraison (blooming date).  The most important breeding goal isn't PD tolerance, or an October harvest. If you don't have flowers, you don't get a crop.  No crop and the vineyard goes under.  If your flowers come out in April or March, the annual 'late frost'  around Easter will cause them all to drop.   If they are late, like the three new seedlings that produced this year, the late frost doesn't matter.  In our case, we had a 75% loss of crop due to the May frost.  From what I hear from the High Plains, the late frost was equally devastating. 

Fortunately, we require only a minor course correction. In a sense, the river bottom location has always demanded it, whether we recognized it or not.  We get an exceptionally late frost almost every year, at least compared to north-central Texas, which itself is more prone to late frosts than most other places in the US.  Since we have local vines, adapted to this freakishly late-frost prone Central Texas river bottom, we have some genetic material that ought to be a good starting point for late floraison. It has been part of the 'October grape plan.'  Late ripening and late flowering go together.  The change in perspective is the focus on florasion itself.  After another year of harvesting, it is clear that Aug harvests are a hassle, but they pay.  The meager crop left after a late frost makes the August heat a non-issue in comparison.  To sum it up, we need to be clear about breeding to push floraison into late May.